[Cloister photos by Steven]
On Tuesday evening, Gov. Cuomo announced that the state had suspended liquor licenses for 38 bars in New York City and on Long Island "after finding egregious violations of pandemic-related Executive Orders."
Of those 38, four of the establishments are in the East Village. (We already covered Maiden Lane here.)
Here are the other three:
• Cloister Cafe, 238 E. Ninth Street between Second Avenue and Third Avenue.
Per the SLA:
On August 7th, the New York City Sheriff's Office requested assistance from the state's multi-agency task force at this establishment approximately 12:30 a.m. — well past the 11 p.m. NYC curfew. Investigators found the restaurant operating as a nightclub and hookah lounge with a live DJ, documenting numerous patrons ignoring social distancing with lines of customers congregating in front of the premises without facial coverings, at least twenty patrons consuming alcohol indoors under a fixed roof, and no receipts for food purchases. The inspection identified thirty-three significant fire and life safety violations, with the NYC Sheriff's Office issuing seven criminal court summonses.
The exclusive pandemic parties reportedly hosted here by Provocateur, a former Meatpacking District club, were a poorly kept secret in recent weeks at Cloister Cafe — now going as CafĂ© Tucano.
One recent attendee told Gothamist, in a story published on Aug. 4, that he saw "hundreds of people, nobody is social distancing, nobody is wearing masks. It’s like the normal club scene. There’s a lot of spenders there. If they do social distancing, they can’t make money. They need to have a packed room full of people to make money."
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• The Hairy Lemon, 28-30 Avenue B between Second Street and Third Street.
Per the SLA:
On August 8th, investigators with the state's multi-agency task force observed patrons standing and drinking without facial coverings outside the premises and confirmed that the location was operating a bar-type service, selling drinks to multiple patrons without substantial food.
The Hairy Lemon had drawn neighbor complaints in recent weeks with crowds congregating to watch sports from the bar's front windows... photos here from Aug. 1 (via Stacie Joy)...
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[Photo from Sunday after the closure]
• The Wayland, 700 E. Ninth St. at Avenue C.
Per the SLA:
On August 7th, investigators with the state's multi-agency task force observed at least 13 patrons without facial coverings standing outside the bar, congregating and mingling. Investigators also noted patrons served drinks at an outdoor table without food.
60 comments:
The state should have. paid these bars to stay shut. Liquor stores stayed open pretty much from the beginning of the pandemic, restaurants offered take out, but bars could only try to save themselves by selling alcohol beverages and the main reason people patronize a bar is to socialize. That decision to not financially support bars may have cost lives and certainly will prolong the pandemic.
Wasn’t The Cloisters the one that had a mural of DJT put up shortly after he was elected? If that’s the case, would stand to reason he doesn’t believe in masks or distancing...
Hate to say it but...Having lived in the East Village over half my life, I have seen far too many bars Literally thumb their noses at the residents, whether it be sleep destroying blasting music, yelling patrons in the bars and on the sidewalks at all hours of the day and night, cigarette smoke filling our apartments, and the same bars breaking every bs agreement stipulation they put in writing to get their liquor license. What Happened to the Rights of the People who LIVE here? Where is our Right to the “Quiet Enjoyment of Our Apartments?” We Have to sleep to work and pay our rent and to live, no one’s partying has the right to destroy that. A lot of these bars dn’t give a crap about us, OBVIOUSLY. About time they got caught and had to pay for their disrespect...in the only language they understand...their $$$$
I reside a couple blocks from the Wayland. I pass by there a lot and have also recognized quite a few congregating and mingling outside not only without a mask but in clusters near one another, standing and taking up space on the sidewalk as one walks by. Not cool! It's basically putting up your middle finger to the rest of us who do wear masks, distance and pay enormous rent. I support local businesses because they are part of our neighborhood. I always want them to flourish especially now during this awful period when countless restaurants throughout the city are permanently closing shop. However, just because patrons are permitted to remain outside partaking in cocktails and dinner, it doesn't preclude anyone from being responsible and for practicing social distancining. This isn't a nightclub or the French Quarter. Businesses should step up and enforce rules and regulations for customers. I can understand why their liquor license was suspended. We all have to live in this community together. Why ruin the outdoor dining for these merchants because someone decided to be cavalier and the hell with everyone else? Actions have consequences.
This is a great point. I feel for all of these bar owners and wanted to defend them but it's hard seeing the photos of Hairy Lemon. That said, I know that owner has put via blood sweat and tears into the bar and you know he's just trying to survive.
Where are all the establishments being shut down in Sunset park with its surge?
Yes, the provacateur parties at the Cloisters were ridiculous, and deserved to get shut down. And perhaps other bars should have done more to corral their patrons so they didn't take up so much space on the sidewalk. But this ridiculous stipulation about having to server "substantial food" with drinks is going to kill these places. You never needed to order a entree to enjoy a beer before, why should you have to now? It's so hypocritical for our state officials to say they want to help these businesses overcome this period and succeed, when they're making it virtually impossible not to. With no help coming from Congress, and our moron president only making things worse with his misleading false promises, things will only get worse before they better, especially now with fall just around the corner.
Hope they take aim at Fat Buddha next at 13th and A. Crowds on the sidewalk, little or no social distancing, few masks and DJ blasting music with speakers on the sidewalk. Total mess.
I visited governor.ny.gov and found a list of other places with suspended licenses in Queens, BK and Manhattan, including the aforementioned three businesses just listed here. Some people are very dumb. Did they not think there were going to be investigators scoping out places to ensure everyone was complying with measures recently put in place? I guess not. Look. I see how so many are getting desperate to open up and earn money. I get it. The caveat though is all of them now face fines of at least 10k with some even facing criminal charges. They are in more debt now then before the pandemic began. It's not worth it. This is a matter of public health and safety. Why is this so difficult to grasp? We are all responsible for one another in different ways. The disgusting photos of those customers in front of The Hairy Lemon hanging out so close together without a care in the world contribute to the problem of selfishness and entitlement not the solution of respecting each other's space and wearing a damn mask. I am glad they were issued fines and can't serve booze indefinitely. Perhaps lessons will be learned. These are not normal times. We can't just live as if the pandemic hasn't happened when it continues to languish and take lives.
Wonder what Ariel Palitz, our "nightlife mayor" , and former east village bar owner,has to say about all this?
Agreed, Fat Buddha is a complete mess. All that 11:33am said is true but there's more. Whether you like it or no, food is a requirement and I never see anyone with food at F.B. or at the other bro-fest across the street, the Spotted Owl.
And the worst part is that on top of enduring the noise and crowds t's up to affected neighbors to shoulder the burden of doing reporting, policing and alerting of the police, local agencies, elected officials and the media of the noise and crowd problems. Otherwise nothing gets done. It adds insult to injury.
We don't NEED bars, and certainly not the ludicrous proliferation of them that the EV has. I don't care if they ALL go out of business; it would actually improve the neighborhood immensely if they all closed.
Bars in the EV exist for one purpose: to help young people get drunk as fast as possible. The idea that you go to a bar to "socialize" is absurd; you go to a bar to get DRUNK with or without your friends. I have NEVER seen anybody drinking "responsibly" at a bar in the EV; apparently being sober is a terrible condition that people feel they must remedy as fast as possible.
Go socialize at an AA meeting instead. Or get into therapy and find out why you have to get drunk to have fun.
I was fascinated by the Cloister Cafe in my early days of coming up to the EV - late 80s, early 90s - it seemed so mysterious and beautiful. I'd pass by the gate and look in and think about having a table in the courtyard ... never went because I didn't think I'd ever be rich/beautiful/influential enough. Now I know I dodged a bullet. Yeech. Another cool space ruined by uncool people.
@12:27pm: You know the "nightlife mayor" is busy collecting her six-figure salary while doing fuck-all. And doesn't she have a "staff" of 6 people working for her? It takes a lot of municipal employees to achieve doing fuck-all!
Amazing how none of the real crazy scene bars on Saint Marks as shown in videos and viral photos are on the list of suspended licenses
Daily they break the rules and the smaller venues further away from the nucleus are hit and penalized
completely agreed about Fat Buddha -- the sidewalk in front of that place was so crowded on Friday you couldn't walk by without pushing through someone not wearing a mask. It's irresponsible and it's time to start reporting them
Dont worry everyone soon enough the majority of the city will be littered with for rent signs and for sale signs. Small businesses will close, and small landlords will lose their buildings and these big real estate companies will swoop them up and screw things up even further and then you can complain about that. There will be tons of tenants out on the butts trying to figure out where they can go next. Not every bar or restaurant it like the before mentioned. Everyone is trying to survive and for those following the rules some of them are sustaining but most are not unfortunately. Yes there is a regulations currently for people to purchase food no matter what if they are going to order a drink, but at the same time how many of you have had more than one drink per meal. How many of you had a hard day at work and just want to have that one drink and done? Even for to go drinks it is required. Also for some of the places that has been closed down for the nonfood accusations how do we know they had not finished eating their meal or just ordered and their order wasnt being made as the inspector who may have only been watching for a few moments or a video had been sent out of context. Not everyone bar or restaurant is doing what cloister and lemon has been accused of. Some on 2nd ave because of the unused bus lane cant even put out additional seating on to the street and can only put out 4 tables on the the sidewalk according to these new guidelines. Everyone is hurting. Help find solutions. Help each other and and lift each other up.
The bar situation has gotten out of control. Each one employs a small number of people, doesn't give them benefits and the profits from selling $13 drinks goes straight to the pockets of a small group of owners. That's the reality. I am not going to lobby to protect them. I want to protect my neighbors from catching a potentially deadly disease. Being able to sleep so we can function at work would be a bonus.
A potentially deadly disease where 99+% of the people who experience it, survive.
But yes, let's continue to tank our economy, further destroy the lower and middle classes, watch our government print money like it's going to fix this (the burden of which I’d wager will largely be passed over to the common folk down the line), and all turn on our neighbors.
Oh wait, I forgot what site I’m on. Most people commenting here turned on their neighbors a long time ago.
To 8:33: a lot of us in the neighborhood have lost people or know people who have lasting issues from Covid-19. Maybe you are so flippant about it because you haven’t been personally impacted. That’s great for you and your friends and family. I hope it stays that way. I wish it was that way for everyone.
@Anon 8:33pm. Really? Where 99% of the people survive? What if someone you loved got sick and died, would you be so cavalier. Have you ever set foot in NYC Pharmacy to see how they are doing after their father Ali died probably because one of us, his customers made him sick. The death toll from this disease is not the entire story as many who have survived are now living with permanent lung or neurological damage. Your comment clearly indicates that you are the one who has turned on their neighbors. The fastest way to halt this virus and save our community, our City and our country is to stop the spread. The bars in question and their reckless patrons are going to keep us in this mess. Mask up, social distance, stay away from crowds and wash your hands. Oh and if you run a bar or restaurant simply follow the rules.
Just sounds like a lot of sad, whiney, unpopular people on here who couldn't get someone to have a drink with them at a bar if they tried. Go back to your endless nights of watching reruns of Friends, munching on microwave popcorn, and petting your cats. The bars will soon be gone too, and you'll need to find something else to be miserable about.
Sounds like you have it down about being miserable about other people being as miserable as you are about other things. Go have a drink before all the bars are gone and you can bitch about that.
Do bars and restaurants need to provide a club/party atmosphere with crowds and blasting music on the sidewalk? No. Serve people. Maintain social distancing. Low background music. It's that simple. No one wants to see businesses close. Get your act together responsibly.
The rules against drinking without food are complete horseshit, the city/state is slaughtering all bars then. There’s tons of pure bars without food in the EV, they deserve a chance to survive this debacle as much as restaurants do.
@12:48 AM
Some of these "sad, whiney, unpopular people" complaining have children who need a lot more sleep than a millennial. They have every right to demand bars control their patrons and noise levels. This is not Vegas, or some spring break town in Florida we are not all in the hospitality business as you most like are.
This is the East Village. If you don't like bars, music, and people enjoying themselves then you should probably move somewhere more appropriate, like salt lake city.
Such passion over the right to drink. How hard is it for your "pure" bars to serve sandwiches? Not that hard. The problem I suppose is that then you can't get crowds of people purely drinking, as in the disheartening picture outside the Lemon. I don't blame the young men as much as I blame the owners. Even decent young men tend to push the limits. That's why we need limits.
Amen to all the comments suggesting that the phrase "the city that never sleeps" should not be taken literally.
I live close to Cloister Cafe and was surprised at how blatant they were with their violations. I looked out my window one night and the scene was like fashion week descended upon the block. Easily 100 people in the courtyard, dozens of people drinking out front with no masks, and a booming DJ attracting attention to all of it.
Ass clowns...
Thank you for a reasonable take. Of course some people and venues are being reckless, there are always a few.
It’s like some people don’t realize these small businesses are the pulse of NYC.
Hahahahaha! You have NO idea how hard it is to make money in this industry. We don’t do it for big bucks! It’s all we can do to break even every year.
We do it because we enjoy it. Our customers and our staff are our family.
Maybe you have had a terrible experience and I’m sorry for that. I’ve had 20 years in the industry, the last 6 as an owner. I have had a variety of different experiences, almost all good. The few bad, I moved on!
It’s great to read that there are others on this site that have a reasonable take on this situation. Thank you.
@10:07 AM
The old if you don't like loud music and shouting drunks in the wee hours then move to (fill in the blank). As a long time resident, not that my point hinges on that fact, the explosion of bars and frat drinking binges is a relative new unwelcome development in this neighborhood. The city has allowed this to happen or should I say encouraged it to happen here and it was not a natural result of being a "hip" neighborhood for many years. The abundance of bars arrived with gentrification and here you are telling those of us who still here to pack up and move away to make room for more partying bros and their girlfriends. If anyone should move away it should be you since you can't understand what reasonable adults are telling you.
@10:08 PM - I'm not flippant about it. I don't deny it exists, and I take it seriously. However, it is not the doom machine everyone thought it was going to be in March and April. The numbers do not bear that out.
Shutting down the majority of our system, or making it near impossible for businesses to survive, because a very small fraction of the population might get sick, is a rather flippant response from my vantage point. In the long run, it will put a lot more people in a lot more pain than this virus ever will. And it's a virus; it will NEVER go away, so all we are doing is delaying the inevitable anyway.
@12:09 AM, do you understand how viruses work?
"The fastest way to halt this virus and save our community, our City and our country is to stop the spread."
Because that's not how viruses work. The only way that possibly works is if we live like this FOREVER, and even then it will still spread, just more slowly. No thanks.
Anyone that has died from this is absolutely tragic, I'm not dismissing that at all. But rules should be based on logic, facts, and data with clear plans for implementation and enforcement. If they aren't, they should be questioned by everyone.
I'd argue just saying "follow the rules" when those rules are literally destroying parts of our local, regional, and overall economy, are implemented haphazardly, are constantly changing, and above all are based on an emotional response to a situation rather than the ever evolving information at hand, is cavalier.
To both of you: just because I don't agree with your perspective does not make mine invalid (and I'm not saying it makes yours invalid either). If we cannot discuss these types of things collectively, and openly, as a society, our situation (on a number of fronts, not just this COVID situation) will never improve.
Amen to that!
Anon 8:33pm The "potentially deadly" disease killed a coworker and my neighbor's mother. Along with nearly 170,000 Americans. REALLY? When Trump fires Kaley McEneny you should apply for the job.
Don't worry everybody, "Its all hoax" and will be going away "like magic".
@8:33pm: What BS! Where did you get the "99+% survive" number? YOU MADE IT UP, because it's NOT TRUE.
BTW, I guess you are unaware that nearly 75% of adults who have SURVIVED Covid have damage to their hearts that is equivalent to having had a heart attack. So you're saying that Covid is no big whoop, and if you survive and have to live with heart failure for the entire rest of your life, that's fine.
You also have no idea how many people are living with permanent damage to their kidneys, liver, lungs, etc. It's all a big hoax to you, and quality of life means nothing to you.
In my family, 2 relatives who are young & were fit (as in "running half-marathons" fit) got Covid and it's now many months since they "recovered" - except they have NOT recovered fully, and neither one of them could possibly go for a run; they are exhausted by mid-day. And they don't know if they ever again will be as healthy as they once were.
So take your fake statistics and shove 'em where the sun don't shine.
And when you write "Most people commenting here turned on their neighbors a long time ago." you're showing your ignorance, b/c most of the BAR OWNERS do NOT live in this neighborhood. Those of us who actually do live here 24/7/365 are usually quite concerned with each other's well-being.
@10:07am: YOU can move to drunky-land if that's your thing; I hear Key West is great for booze-hounds. We regular people are not going anywhere, so deal with it.
That’s tragic. Still, your personal experience does not reflect what the majority of people, by the numbers, have experienced.
To deflect with insults adds nothing. Trying to frame me as someone who thinks the whole thing is a hoax just because my opinion is different and I don’t share your level of fear illustrates the broader problem:
The virus and our response to it has been co-opted for political purposes, and a binary belief set has been established. If you don’t wholeheartedly buy into one side, you simply must be for the other side. Zealots on each side think the other is stupid and will shout down those that present differing perspectives with insults and bile (sound familiar?).
And that is one of a multitude of reasons why we can’t have objective discussions about strategic, surgical solution options for complicated problems we face as a society. It’s probably the reason the general population is most empowered to actually change, if we’d just do the work. Hopefully sometime soon people will realize that and deem the effort worthy of the sacrifice.
Other countries who have seemingly come back to life from this virus went through a REAL lockdown. So you’re out & about, let’s see your official note with reason. No note? Get your ass home and here’s your fine.
@4:05pm Except Sweden. And if you look at the available numbers there, they made out ok.
Seems weird to me that only 0.8% of their 10M+ population had it though. I don’t think the virus is less effective based on national borders.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Needing an official note to be out and about? Fining people for doing so? Asking the police (or who?) to enforce it? Have fun living in that draconian reality.
@2:57pm: Apparently you don't actually know anyone who's had Covid, or you wouldn't be saying what you're saying. And for you to be making up fake statistics to try to bolster your false claims about how bad Covid is leaves you looking foolish.
It's clear that your personal experience does not intersect with the experience of over 5 MILLION Americans who have been *proven* to have had Covid ... you don't know them and you haven't talked to them or believed what they've said in interviews. (And that number doesn't even count the 160,000+ Americans who've DIED from Covid, leaving behind many grieving family members & friends.) What I hear you saying is: It's only a few million people in a big country, and it hasn't touched you yet personally, so you're discounting it very heavily.
You claim that people can't have a reasonable conversation about this, and that's true: I can't have a reasonable conversation about this with a person who is MAKING UP FAKE STATISTICS as part of their "understanding" of Covid that they want me to believe! The fact that you are using fake statistics *does* invalidate your POV.
And perhaps your response to the virus is based on your having been co-opted for political purposes, but mine has not been. The bottom line on this is that a virus has no politics, and it will infect & damage & kill anyone/everyone it can access. It's very equal-opportunity in that way.
Your view of how epidemics spread and play out is also at odds with the POV of the most highly-credentialed & highly-respected professional epidemiologists. So in case of disagreement, I'm going to believe the professionals, and not what someone who wants this all to just go away tells me.
There needs to be some kind of real timeline for restaurants and bars to open, the current limbo is slaughtering them. There was a plan long ago that restaurants were going to be allowed to reopen when they hit the right metric. Now? Indoor dining suddenly isn’t tied to case rates, it’s tied to transmission rate. Whoops, now it’s tied to other states. Sure, you can have outdoor dining, but if you’re serving alcohol, you have to serve food. No, substantial food. You want a timeline? Screw you, there’s your timeline.
đź’Ż, we’re all in this together.
@5:44pm I submitted a detailed reply of how I got to my 99% survival conclusion to @2:34pm, with sources (all numbers from the CDC and state gov’t sites).
Once that posts, if it does, you’ll see the math.
Bottom line: I didn’t make up anything, and I don’t take statistics from mainstream news sources at face value.
“What I hear you saying is: It's only a few million people in a big country, and it hasn't touched you yet personally, so you're discounting it very heavily.”
Nope. Try again.
“You claim that people can't have a reasonable conversation about this, and that's true: I can't have a reasonable conversation about this with a person who is MAKING UP FAKE STATISTICS as part of their "understanding" of Covid that they want me to believe! The fact that you are using fake statistics *does* invalidate your POV.”
Nope, I’m not using fake anything.
“And perhaps your response to the virus is based on your having been co-opted for political purposes, but mine has not been. The bottom line on this is that a virus has no politics, and it will infect & damage & kill anyone/everyone it can access. It's very equal-opportunity in that way.”
Nope. Trump is a moron, and Biden is no solution. We’ve got a shitty choice to make in the Presidential election, a lifelong hack who does only for himself in the governor’s office, and an absolute waste of space at Gracie Mansion. Until we have better candidates, we’ll have familiar problems.
Yes, agree that the virus doesn’t care. But you and I disagree on how destructive it actually is and THAT IS FINE (does me going all caps there make my point resonate more or just seem condescending?).
“Your view of how epidemics spread and play out is also at odds with the POV of the most. So in case of disagreement, I'm going to believe the professionals, and not what someone who wants this all to just go away tells me.”
??? Viruses infect a population, exposure increases until the group establishes some kind of immunity, and then the risk is reduced (but obviously still there). That immunity could be established just via exposure or with a vaccine, but the class of viruses COVID is in, it’s exposure that prevents the greatest risks. What “highly-credentialed & highly-respected professional epidemiologists” are disputing that?
Looking only at statistics, I wonder what the number of deaths (not including people left compromised by Covid) would be before we could collectively agree that this is a MAJOR problem and unite. 170,000 in 6 months is enough in my opinion considering we might still be at the beginning of this mess. Looking only at statistics, it could be argued that a few wars, deaths from gun violence, and the homeless crisis are really very minor issues when you consider the entire population. We are better!
This is for 10:07
My hometown is SLC, Utah. It is a very liberal place, especially downtown, where there is a plethora of bars and concert venues to mingle in spite of the Mormon influence. Many of its residents are young, educated, professional, hip, gay friendly, and democratic. Huge LGBTQ+ presence and music scene. I think it is more desirable to be there in some ways now rather than here, although I will continue to remain in NYC because it has been my home for twenty years,
The EV is going through transition and adaption. My biggest gripe with others is the lack of the self-awareness and consideration for fellow neighbors as we traverse about our days. This is a health issue. These are also not normal times for any of us. Be mindful of others, please. And do your homework. SLC isn't an oppressive, boring area. Peace.
@7:52pm: "and I don’t take statistics from mainstream news sources at face value." Hmm, so the "mainstream media" is lying? How did you determine that to be the case? You are actively discounting & disregarding mountains of data to arrive at your conclusion. This could be called "cherry-picking the data."
The only thing left for you to do is wear a t-shirt that says how much you love & trust FOX NEWS.
Good luck with your version of herd immunity.
No. Just stop. There’s a way to find the medium. These “older” residents are why you little twits have a so called cool neighborhood.
Yes, they are having fun and all sending me the pictures to prove it now. Terribly jealous of everything they can do now and the lack of covid cases. Did it suck there for a while? Yes. But it doesn’t now.
@10:12pm - My two main sources for data:
CDC data:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
NYS data:
https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities
It’s also important to read how they track the data, and you’ll find that they include both confirmed and suspected deaths - as well as consider that there is a difference between dying with COVID and dying from COVID.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/about-us-cases-deaths.html
Another key thing to understand is actual infection rate, which given what we know from antibody testing, as well as that there are many asymptomatic and mild case carriers, is likely much higher than originally believed. Here’s one of Gov Cuomo’s briefings about that:
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing
So take those numbers, extrapolate out based on the likely increased infection rate (use the NYS numbers for this, given the antibody study was specifically for our state), and see where the numbers land.
You’ll end up with 1.06% fatality & 98.94% survival rates for NY state, the worst hit state in our nation - and thats before even considering the caveats against the death counts I mentioned above (which is why I say 99+). That’s how I draw my conclusion. Nothing made up.
If you’ve got a suggestion for a more legitimate source for data than the CDC and official NYS Gov sites, I’m all ears.
When I said I don’t follow statistics from “mainstream news sources” I meant every flavor of it. Fox or CNN or MSNBC or whatever - they are pretty much all the same: interested in as much shock and sensationalism as they can sell, and they all cherry pick information to align with the narrative their viewing segments expect.
I’d rather do the math myself, against the data I believe has the best level of integrity available, than trust any of them without intense scrutiny of their data, which is often hard to get at (especially if you consume that media on your television).
Attempting to insult me by framing me as a Fox News fan just suggests to me that you’ve bought in to one of the other echo chambers already and you take whatever they give you at face value without doing your own critical thinking about it.
Good luck with that.
@4:04am: Absolutely correct!
@10:38am: Come off it. You originally wrote: "A potentially deadly disease where 99+% of the people who experience it, survive." But NOW you're saying "You’ll end up with 1.06% fatality & 98.94% survival rates for NY state, the worst hit state in our nation - and that's before even considering the caveats against the death counts I mentioned above (which is why I say 99+). That’s how I draw my conclusion. Nothing made up."
You ARE making things up. You're playing with statistics to get a result you want, b/c you talk about "caveats against the death counts" in saying "consider that there is a difference between dying with COVID and dying from COVID."
NO, the survival rate is NOT "99+%" no matter how you slice & dice the numbers. I don't think you should be trying to argue statistics with a statistician. I could run rings around you on this very easily & at great length, but it's not worth my time, b/c you are just plain WRONG in the way you're "massaging" the numbers and in the way you're arriving at your conclusions.
Your original post was very clear in being fairly dismissive of this virus and the terrible toll it has taken (and will continue to take) on this city, state, and country, b/c apparently to you protecting the economy is a higher priority than protecting human life; that's the bottom line of your argument, and I'm done responding to you.
@12:40pm Such hostility.
I’m not looking for the data to show me anything but the truth.
“You ARE making things up. You're playing with statistics to get a result you want, b/c you talk about "caveats against the death counts" in saying "consider that there is a difference between dying with COVID and dying from COVID."”
Playing with statistics? By crunching numbers from gov’t sources and then considering the nuances of how those numbers were collected?
There are caveats against all of it. If I have terminal cancer, and also catch COVID, and I die, what killed me? If I run my car into a tree and die, but tested positive for COVID, what killed me? There is absolutely a difference between dying because of COVID and dying with COVID. You say you’re a statistician - aren’t considerations like that part of your job?
Besides, I got to the 98.94% survival rate only using the raw numbers that are available and the antibody study - no massaging at all. You want to split hairs about +0.061% being attributed to those caveats I mentioned?
What are the typical margin of error rates for the studies you deal with in your professional capacity, given you like to boast about your skill in that regard on public blog sites?
Ok, how about this: 98.94% of people that get COVID survive it. Happy now? Thats straight math with available data from the best sources we have. And that’s still a ridiculous rate to continue to run our society the way we are. So how am I making things up?
Human life and the economy are interrelated.
Keep focusing on your emotion and a problem in a vacuum, and not on the bigger picture. Is that what all statisticians do, or just the especially angry ones?
Keep puffing your chest up, righteous warrior statistician. You’re fighting the good fight, and everybody that doesn’t agree with you is meritless and completely wrong.
@12:40pm - I’m not looking for the data to show me anything but the truth.
Playing with statistics? By crunching numbers from gov’t sources and then considering the nuances of how those numbers were collected?
There are caveats against all of it. If I have terminal cancer, and also catch COVID, and I die, what killed me? If I run my car into a tree and die, but tested positive for COVID, what killed me? There is absolutely a difference between dying because of COVID and dying with COVID. You say you’re a statistician - aren’t considerations like that part of your job?
Besides, I got to the 98.94% survival rate only using the raw numbers that are available and the antibody study - no massaging at all. You want to split hairs about +0.061% being attributed to those caveats I mentioned? What are the typical standard error rates for the studies you deal with?
How about this: 98.94% of people that get COVID survive it. That’s straight math with available data from the best sources we have. And that’s still a ridiculous rate to continue to run our society the way we are. So how am I making things up?
Human life and the economy are interrelated. It’s not about ignoring or not taking COVID seriously, it’s about considering our response in the appropriate context. You’re focusing on the tragedy of people dying and the virus itself in a vacuum, and not on the bigger picture.
I should probably stay out of this but if you are actually a statistician 12:40 pm why don't you provide better statistics rather than fulminating. I am not a stastician but have read that fatality rates are narrowing in on 0.5% to 1%. I do not agree that this should encourage carefreeness, unless you are willing to sacrifice a million or more.
What a breakdown we are witnessing. Thoughts and prayers.
+1,000,000,000
If there are better stats, point to them.
No one should be carefree about this. But we should all work together, realistically, about this.
How hard is it for a bar that has no kitchen (and never needed one) to serve sandwiches? Pretty hard, if you ask me. What’s next? A visit from the health department and a fine for serving food in “unacceptable” conditions?? A D rating for a kitchen that doesn’t exist yet is mandated?! The whole food with a drink thing is BS. Establishments just need to operate responsibly, food or not. EV businesses that operate properly, respectfully and cleanly need to be left alone and allowed to survive. The city is already going to hell in a handbag. Let us have a bag of chips and a drink, and go our merry way. Masks and all.
With all due respect, "thoughts and prayers," the proverbial catchphrase people use to deflect an issue when they don't know what else to contribute to a conversation or a situation won't do jack shit. We need action from lawmakers and leaders. Our mayor is a complete idiot and baboon who is fucking the city up with his apathy and ineptitude. I really hate what he is doing to our city. As citizens, we need to find a way to impeach his stupid ass. And we need to bring back plain clothes cops. Those, not thoughts and prayers, is how we slowly rebuild, among other things.
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