In case you were feeling good about things...

Crain's New York has the story.

To Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the recession may be over. But in Queens, Anthony Fodera isn't buying it. The president of 80-year-old bakery-goods distributor Fodera Foods says checks are being returned from customers who had pristine payment histories and orders are off by nearly 25% compared with this time last year.

“I don't see the recession being over, especially in New York City, where so much of business revolves around Wall Street,” Mr. Fodera says. “It's my gut [feeling] from what I'm seeing.”

For the city, Mr. Fodera's gut appears to be a better indicator than Mr. Bernanke's statement last week that “the recession is very likely over at this point.” With tax receipts, office and hotel room rentals and Broadway ticket sales all tumbling and unemployment continuing to rise, the city's economy has further to fall before the impact of this epic downturn finally subsides. Even the most optimistic economists' estimates have the five boroughs losing about 150,000 more jobs, on top of the nearly 100,000 jettisoned since August 2008. Experts, drawing on past experience, say the bottom could be more than a year away.

Recovery in the city traditionally lags the nation. For example, in 1991, the national recession ended in March, but the city's jobless rate rose for another 18 months. And unemployment in the city didn't peak until 14 months after the national downturn ended in November 2001.

“If the recession is ending now, we're probably looking at the end of next year before peak unemployment arrives,” says James Brown, principal economist at the state Department of Labor.

Signs of the coming Depression?

Two times in two different locations in the East Village...I saw someone walking down the street blowing on a harmonica. One more sighting and this is enough for a trends/lifestyles piece in the Times.

Noted

Our old friend Esquared passed along information about the Modern Day Depression-Era Fundraiser at the City Reliquary in Williamsburg...Like everyone else, they're having a tough time paying rent...Anyway, what did we miss from the fundraiser this past Friday? Here's how they described some of the night's activities:

Pie the Landlord! That’s right: the City Reliquary will have our very own cigar-chomping, unshaven, smelly Landlord demanding our rent! Tell him where to shove it with a whipped cream pie in his face!

Hobo Photos a Go-Go: Take your picture in our hand painted carnival sign. Remember the Recession of ’09 with a photographic keepsake!

Oil drum fires: (and more modern propane heaters) to keep you warm while you chill in the cold. All fires will be regulated carefully by official FDNY supervision!

DIY Fingerless Gloves Table! Because nothing says Depression-chic than rockin’ a pair of fingerless gloves!

Prohibition-era Beer provided by the Brooklyn Brewery and Depression-era “Rum” Punch provided by the City Reliquary at contemporary-recession era prices.

What do you think?

A) Hey, we're all fucked, might as well make light of it!
B) As funny as Hugh Jackman's recession opening number at the Oscars! (Not that I watched it.)
C) As insulting as Hugh Jackman's recession opening number at the Oscars! (Not that I watched it.)
D) Stupid
E) All the above

Happy holidays from the state comptroller! (And MTA!)

The Post reports today:

It keeps getting worse.

State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli warned yesterday that the city faces budget gaps of $3.5 billion and $8 billion in the next two fiscal years -- far higher than previous forecasts.

That's a sharp increase from the $1.3 billion and $5 billion deficits Mayor Bloomberg projected last month in his budget plan for the 2010 and 2011 fiscal years. It even surpasses the state Financial Control Board's dire figures that came out just five days ago and put the city's budget gaps at $2.3 billion and $6.4 billion.

Meanwhile, subway and bus fare will probably increase to $3 next year!

Now let's go out and spend some money!

A pessimistic economic forecast gets more pessimistic (aka, Holy Fucking Shit — We're Screwed!)

Gothamist has the not-so-chipper economic news for the city:

New York City's budget gap will be as much as $1.9 billion in fiscal 2009 and could possibly balloon to as much as $5 billion by 2011, according to a wholly depressing new report from City Comptroller (and mayoral hopeful) William Thompson Jr. ... The recession could cost the city some $935 million in tax revenues next year, a figure that includes a $525 million shortfall in real estate-related taxes, a $345 million reduction in personal income and business taxes, and a $65 million loss in property taxes.

The annual report, titled The State of the City’s Economy and Finances (Or, Time To Move Back In With Your Parents), paints an even bleaker picture than Mayor Bloomberg's November budget proposal. In it, Thompson writes, "Waves of negative economic developments during 2008 have given way to a tsunami of financial anxiety and caused us to issue a more pessimistic forecast than was put forth by the mayor. As the economy erodes, the outlook for New York City’s fiscal future will continue to change."

Soupy Sales (sorry, it's Monday morning)

Esquared has a post on a new boutique called The 1929 on Mott Street. As the Daily News reports:

A new SoHo boutique named The 1929 — after the Depression — and a place where fashionistas and the down-and-out soon could be rubbing shoulders. The street level store on 179 Mott St. is decked out with racks of snazzy dresses, pants and tops by independent designers.

The basement level has been transformed into an art and performance space by night and a spot where hungry shoppers, or even passersby, can pick up a free bowl of soup and coffee during the day.

“The store is inspired by the Great Depression,” said store manager Aaron Genuth, 25, one of three friends who created the business.

And there's one comment to the Daily News piece so far:

SinisterCadre Dec 7, 2008 4:59:14 PM
This is the epitome of tackiness. Who says people in SoHo have class? Just who do they expect to buy these expensive clothes? Definitely not someone who would resort to patronizing a soup kitchen. These people deserve to be slapped.